- Despite the failed attack on Israel, experts warn of Iran's potential for a more effective strike.
- Iran's retaliatory attack consisted of over 300 missiles and drones.
- Analysts say that Iran's strategy mirrors Russian tactics in Ukraine.
Israel thwarted Iran's retaliatory missile attack, but experts said Iran can use this loss to learn and plan a more effective strike. Israel and its allies can't afford to get complacent they say.
"The attack probably helped Iran identify the relative strengths and the weaknesses of the Israeli air defense system," analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in an April 14 report.
ISW analysts Brian Carter and Frederick Kagan argued that "the Iranians will learn lessons from this strike and work to improve their abilities to penetrate Israeli defenses over time as the Russians have done in repeated strike series against Ukraine."
On April 13, Iran launched a barrage of roughly 150 missiles and 170 drones at Israel in response to Israel's attack on an Iranian consulate building in Syria earlier this month that killed several officials, escalating a years-long shadow war.
Iran's missiles and drones were overwhelmingly intercepted by Israel, its neighboring countries and allied forces, however, experts say this attack could offer Iran lessons for its next big hit.
While many of Iran's missiles and drones were intercepted, the number of weapons that were able to break through Israel's defenses is notable enough for concern. In the future, if Iran learns from its wins and losses in this exchange, these weapons "could cause significant civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure, including ports and energy."
"Russian strikes on Ukraine have demonstrated that even a small number of precise strikes against key nodes in energy or other infrastructure can cause disproportionate effects. Israel and its partners should not emerge from this successful defense with any sense of complacency," ISW said.
ISW analysts explained that Iran's strategy is in some ways similar to Russia's tactics targeting Ukraine. Iran's drones and cruise missiles were launched earlier in order to hit Israel's defense air system at the same time as ballistic missiles.
"The Russians have used such an approach against Ukraine repeatedly," the ISW report said. "The purpose of such a package is to have the slower cruise missiles and drones distract and overwhelm air defenses in order to allow the ballistic missiles, which are much harder to shoot down, to reach their targets."
With Iran mirroring its partner's strategy, experts said that it could report its findings from the attack back to Russia and help inform Russia's military as to how it can better challenge defense systems that NATO and the US have provided Ukraine.
That said, the worsening conflict between Iran and Israel could also hurt Russia's relationship with Iran as Moscow may not be able to adequately support Tehran, which also would be unable to offer the same level of support it has been were it to find itself in a wider war.